Tag Archives: Bill Zender

Bill Zender Newsletter – December 20, 2018

( Reprinted with permission )

Dear Friends and Business Associates,

I just want to take the time to wish everyone a Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays, and a Happy and Joyous New Year. I’m sorry that I have been unable to conduct my usual consulting work, travel to different casino and provide them advice and answers to table game problems, teach seminars on game protection and table game mathematics, and looking into and learning all the new techniques the “dark side” of casino gaming has been throwing at us in 2018. As you all know, I have spent the last nine months (has it been that long?) helping to operate a Cardroom Casino in Northern California. Unfortunately, it has taken up a great amount of my time, and because of the situation, it appears that I will be in this same position at least until the summer/fall of 2019. For now, take care and I wish you all a fun and very happy holiday season, and a pleasant and prosperous 2019.

Answers to Important Emails

I like to publish questions I receive from various people who contact me and my answers that I believe would be, not only interesting, but enlightening to other people who subscribe to my eBlast list. One major problem our industry has always had is the sharing of information regarding gaming mathematics and issues related to possible cheating and advantage play. I believe in maintaining a forum that is as open as possible where others in the industry can learn from various industry executives and managers regarding their questions and experiences.

Following are three emails I received over the past months. When replying to the questions, there are some instances where I also mention attached backup articles, spreadsheets or charts. If you happen to find the reply to a certain email appealing, and are interested in obtaining the additional material mentioned, feel free to contact me and ask for the specific article, spreadsheet, or chart.

In addition, I do honor your individual privacy. I will omit the location and name of the individual asking the question, and will not use a question/reply if the person who asks the question wishes to keep it between the two of us. Please send any table game related questions to wzender@aol.com.

Question:
I am wondering if some casino’s place comp restrictions on Video Poker players (Jacks or Better or Double–Double bonus machines)?

Note: Not really a table games question, but I do comment on comp restrictions in ETGs;

My Reply:
The short answer is yes they do. A lot of video poker games operate off a low H/A%, usually less than 3%. In most cases, each slot “point” represents a theoretical give back of 0.25%. If you offer 5X points as a promotion, the give back is 1.25%. If the video poker game is a 1% game or less (played perfect basic strategy), then you have eliminated your edge. Of course this would require the player receiving 100% of their reinvestment return (cash, food, rooms, etc.), but you get the picture. It’s not unusual to see casinos offer 8X or greater promotion days or periods.
Another area to consider is electronic devices/games that involve a participation with the machine manufacturer. You need to consider your “profit sharing” agreement before including that device in your standard point promotion. Example; one major gaming corporation does not give players slot points for play on their ETG roulette machines. The reason for this is that they have a high participation sharing percentage, and even though the roulette machine is subject to a 5.26% H/A% on all bets, if they apply their standard points reinvestment, they are upside down revenue potential. Be sure to evaluate (or reevaluate) all participation devices and games.

Question:
I am the table games manager for a casino in Oklahoma. I have a couple of questions about one play only promo chips. The first question is how will having promo chips affect a tables hold %; let’s say the table usually holds X% but we then add promo chips, what is the expected change in hold % and how did you come up with this figure? The second question is how would you create a report showing how the promo chips are doing? If you can give me some directions on these questions it would help me out a lot, please remember that the promo chips are one play only no matter if the player wins or losses.

My Reply:
Great question. Single play Promo chips result in a loss to the chip tray of the table where they are played.  If you reduce the amount of chips in the tray, you lower your hold percentage.

The purpose for single play chip promotions is to bring players to the table to gamble.  The down side to this promotion will occur if the customers don’t stay at the table long enough for you to win back the cost of the chips.  The cost of the single play promo chip is approximately 48% of face value (based on a standard BJ game).  If you give a player a $10.00 single play (also known as “free play”) promo chip, it cost the casino (and the table tray) $4.80.  If the customer continues to play and bets $10 (on BJ), he will have to place an additional 37 wagers (at $10) before you will break even. In many cases, the marketing department has no idea of this cost and give the promo chips away like they are candy.

Note: In review of this person’s question, I noticed I forgot to answer his question 2 regarding how to create a report that shows the effect, positive or negative, regarding the single play promo chips usage. The answer; you need to compare the cost of the promo chips given away, in this case about 48% of face value, with the incremental revenue gain from the promotion.  You also need to add in any additional cost such as extra dealers to open more games, and personal to handle the promotion.  In many cases, the promotion is not structured correctly and/or closely monitored by management, and the cost exceed the increase in revenue generated by the promotion.  God bless the marketing department; however, a number of marketing personnel do not understand that the cost of this promotion is felt by the table games. When marketing creates a promotion Proforma (I hope they create a Proforma!), they usually don’t include the true cost of the promo chips.

Question:
I’ve recently heard that you advise operators to keep side bets on blackjack tables at $100 max or less.  I’m reaching out to question your reasoning behind that.  More specifically, in relation to the side bet offered at my property. We offer 21+3 side bets that pay 9 to 1.

Reply:
There are a couple reasons for setting lower side bets limits:

On multiple paying wagers, in this instance 9:1, you are open to large swings when players wager large amounts, and in most cases upper management does not understand when someone crushes a BJ game on a non-high limit table. Keeping the limits low allows you to maintain the “grind” play.
Side bets are sometimes exploitable when players are allowed to wager larger amounts. For instance, the “Match the Dealer” side bet can be counted using a special count system, but no one attacks it when it is limited to a $25 maximum side bet. The estimated hourly “card counting” return for an average paced game is under $3 per hour. If someone were to raise the limit to $250, the side bet becomes much more attractive (just under $30 per hour). I tell people, be careful when raising the side bet limits you don’t open up Pandora’s box.

On the opposite side of this equation, raising the side bet limit will increase your revenue potential from that side bet. The only problem is that an overwhelming majority of side bet players wager in $5 to $10 maximum, and the side bets don’t really attract higher range players who usually are not interested in anything but wagering on the main game. Idea; maybe consider giving certain higher limit players a special limit on the side bets (if your regulations allow it).

If you want to raise the side bet limit, be sure you understand how the side bet can be beaten through advantage play beforehand (check www.apheat.net), and be sure upper management understands any possible win/loss volatility; explain the trade-off of short-term volatility for long-term revenue potential.

Scheduled Seminars and Workshop

World Game Protection Conference March 2019 – Las Vegas

Don’t forget the World Game Protection Conference, March 3-6, 2019 at the Tropicana Resort in Las Vegas. I plan to conduct two 50 minute sessions; one on Electric Table Games, similar to last year, but with updated material, and a second 50 minute session which will be a “drill down” into Roulette and Craps. It appears there are a couple of gambling jurisdictions that are including both roulette and craps to their State’s available table games for the first time. This session will be interesting for both the “newbie” and the “long-term” veterans. For more information, please go to: https://www.worldgameprotection.com/register/.

On the Move
I don’t have any additional jobs other than the one in northern California. I will keep everyone informed when that changes. Following is my obligations for the 2019 (so far):

February –
World Game Protection Conference in Las Vegas Nevada

Questions???

As mentioned previously in this eBlast, I’m always available to answer your questions. If you have any questions on gaming; don’t hesitate to contact me through email. I answer close to a half dozen emails on gaming every day wzender@aol.com.

Cheers and good luck.

Bill Zender
Bill Zender and Associates
702-423-5734

Blackjack, Casinos

Bill Zender on the One2Six Shufflers

January 9, 2018 Leave a comment

By Bill Zender. ¹⁾EDITOR NOTE: Post below updated in 2023 to reflect Bill Zender’s email responses including the One2Six Shufflers.

Emails I have received

Following are several email questions I have received over the past month that I felt were important enough to pass along to friends/associates.

Question:

Note: I received a text message from a casino executive who had not used a continual shuffling machine (CSM) previously. Although I answered his text message regarding game effect of using a CSM, I felt he needed to know some more important information regarding using a CSM for the first time. Following is my reply through email. My thumbs are too fat for texting any quantity of information.

Answer:

It appears that you haven’t used One2Six shuffling machines (CSMs) before. Following are some things you need to know when using an One2Six shufflers:

Be sure the dealers are “trained” to pick up the cards and place the cards face up in the machine. If the dealers aren’t trained correctly, the game will slow to nothing while the floor supervisor has to remove the “upside-down” cards from the interior wheel of the machine. I learned about this the hard way.
You need to stay on the dealers about maintaining an adequate game pace. For some unknown reason, the dealers will slow their game pace on CSMs. I think it has something to do with the removal of the deck manual shuffle or transfer time when using batch shuffling machines.
Don’t allow the dealers to keep several previous hands in the discard holder before placing them into the machine. CSM machines can’t be traditionally counted; however holding out groups of cards can make it a countable game. I would remove all discard holders from the CSM table, and force the dealer to insert each round that has been dealt immediately into the CSM.
This is really important: The lip of the One2Six shuffling machine is quite high as compared to most dealing shoes. Some dealers will have a tendency to stick their thumb of their left hand (dealing hand) under the drawn hole-card. If the dealer does this, the hole-card can be lifted and exposed accidentally to a customer sitting at third base. Make sure all dealers remove their hole-card while the thumb of their left hand is away from the edge of the card.

I would imagine you know most of this, but since you haven’t used CSMs machines before (to my knowledge), I would feel bad if something happened and I hadn’t mentioned it. Have a great holiday season my friend.

Question:

My question is for a player’s average bet on Ultimate Texas Holdem. Should the “play wager” be counted in a player’s average bet?

Answer:

With UTH, the average bet is the amount of the ante plus the blind, i.e., the amount of money on the layout when the first hand is dealt. Any additional wagering is optional, and is not included. In addition, the H/A% for UTH in most player tracking systems is usually wrong. The game has a 2.2% H/A [applied using the ante/blind wager] if the player uses optimal computer strategy. No one uses optimal strategy, so the true H/A% is probably around 3.5%. Note that I didn’t include any UTH side bets. They differ, are optional, and the average bet wagered in the side bets varys. It’s better to leave their existence out of the player “average bet” rating equation. BTW, the 3.5% suggested also includes a gain in H/A% from any side bet/jackpot bet H/A% influence.

Question:

Good afternoon Bill, what is the more effective/profitable to have a table of 6 players compared to 2 tables with 3 players in terms of hands per hour?

Answer:

Good question. It would be better for gaining more bet decisions if more tables were open and less players were on each game. This is a problem for brick and mortar casinos, though. You have limited space, and the increased cost of personnel and equipment need to be considered as well.

There is some table game yield management information out there on the Internet that recommends 3 to 4 player hands per table (check Tangam Gaming http://tangamgaming.com/). You would need to do your own cost analysis before making an educated decision whether this is better for you at your casino or not. Personally, I would open enough games to allow for a couple of unoccupied betting circles per table average.

Once it starts to get really busy, the 3 to 4 player hands per table advantage goes out the window, and then the strategy is to open games to accommodate players. At this point you may also consider raising minimum limits in order to maximize revenue potential. I guess that is table game yield management in a nut shell.

Questions???

I’m always available to answer your questions. If you have any questions on gaming; don’t hesitate to contact me through email. I answer close to a half dozen emails on gaming every day wzender@aol.com.

Cheers and good luck.

Bill Zender and Associates
702-423-5734

Footnotes[+]

Footnotes
↑1	EDITOR NOTE: Post below updated in 2023 to reflect Bill Zender’s email responses including the One2Six Shufflers.

Blackjack, Casinos

How Casinos can be Sure a Person is Counting?

October 5, 2017 Leave a comment

By Bill Zender

October 2, 2017

Dear Friends and Business Associates,

I will be attending this year’s G2E tomorrow, October 3^rd, and Wednesday October 4^th. Since I am on the Board of Directors, I will be “hanging out” primarily at the Galaxy Gaming booth 4208. The convention area is like a small city so be sure to grab a map and look for the booth’s location. Come by and see Galaxy’s sales “guru” Dean Barnett, or the company’s new CEO, Todd Cravens. A longtime associate of mine, Gary Saul, will also be working the booth. While you are there, ask Gary to show you a card trick or two.

Part of the time I plan to visit the Techart booth 3535. Techart is the maker of the MAXTime hole card reader. I will be there visiting two of my good friends, Bob Del Rossi and Artie Miller. Artie is one of the winners of the World Game Protection Conference’s “Lifetime Achievement” awards for his contribution to the gaming industry and game protection. Not a bad place to spend time.
If you catch me around 2PM on Wednesday, maybe you can join me while I walk the exhibition floor. I like to tour some of the booths and look at new and improved products that involve table game productivity and protection. It’s usually a fun table game “walk-about”, and you never know what you might find. Hope to see you there.

How can a casino executive be sure a person is actually counting?
This is the third portion of the Card Counting Protection series I have detailed in my monthly eBlasts.
Before backing anyone off a game, changing deck penetration, or limiting the player’s bet spread, one needs some reasonable tools to determine that the suspected person is a professional level card counter. The executive or surveillance professional who is conducting the evaluation needs to use some type of analytical tool that will accurately determine the possibility that the suspected player is in fact a card counter, and also provide the evaluator with a printout, or hard copy of these results. This hard copy can be used to back up the evaluation, and to later serve as proof that the suspect was in fact counting cards. How many times have your department taken action against a player for counting cards, only to have the legitimacy of the “back off” questioned by a host or casino marketing afterwards? In addition, this evaluation tool can serve as evidence as to why a player wasn’t backed off even though the customer was a big winner.

There are two tools that I recommend casino executives can utilize. The first tool is a blackjack software package that analyzes a blackjack player’s skill and betting level. There are two very effective software packages available to the casino executive.

Information regarding the person’s actual play is entered into the program either manually or through a voice recognition program. After enough hands are entered into the program, it is queried by the analyst. The program will indicate to what degree the information of the betting and hand decision patterns indicate the suspected player is counting cards. It’s important when using any type of card counter verification method that several decks or shoes are analyzed in order to calculate the best possible decision outcome. The primary drawbacks to the software are in its inability to take into consideration other influences in the game, and the hefty price tag that comes with the software.

The second card counting analytical tool is a much lower tech, less expensive system that accomplishes the same goal just as accurately. This is known as “charting”. A number of surveillance departments already use some form of charting a customer’s plays as a means to better understand the person’s play characteristics. Charting is most effective as a card counter catch tool when the evaluator uses it to determine the breadth of the suspect’s betting spread, and the suspect’s betting correlation with the true count of the cards. In order to win money counting cards, the counter must wager significantly more money when he has the advantage, and as little as possible when the casino has the advantage. If the charted observations of a suspected player indicate that he is utilizing a large enough bet spread, and increasing his wagers to the larger bet level when he has a mathematical advantage of 90% or greater, then the evaluator has enough information to safely rule that the suspected player is counting cards. As noted when using a software package to evaluate a suspected card counting play, it is prudent to watch no less than 4 decks or shoes before making the final decision about the player.

Following are points that need to be followed to ensure the casino executive or surveillance professional is making the correct analysis regarding a suspected blackjack player’s long-term ability to be a card counting threat to the casino’s bankroll.

Don’t automatically assume that a winning blackjack player is counting cards. There’s a greater chance he’s a desirable player who is running luck. Assuming a winning person is a card counter will also cloud one’s ability to look for other more costly problems such as advantage play techniques and cheating.
It’s a must for a successful card counter to have an effective bet spread, especially in the six deck and eight deck games (don’t forget the 6:5 single decks). Without the necessary bet spread range, the player cannot gain an advantage counting cards.
Never cut the shoe in half on a player to look for a reaction. You need to analyze the play before taking any action. If you cut the shoe in half on a desirable blackjack customer, he could get upset and never play at your property again.
Don’t rely on a decision that is made by one of your floor executives or surveillance operator who is not at least on a semi-professional card counting level. I’ve known a number of executives who claim to know card counting inside and out, but when asked, can’t answer simple questions such as the mechanics of true count conversion and hand strategy deviations. Take the Ouija board out of the equation.
Whether your organization uses a counter catcher software package or elects to chart the play, always look at several shoes or decks before making a decision about a player. I prefer looking at several examples where the count is mostly minus throughout the shoe, as well as several examples where the count is mostly plus. Taking your time to compare the extremes will help eliminate the chance of getting “false positives”.
Do not take action against a suspected player until you are 100% sure the player is counting cards. If you wish to error on the side of the casino, take your time and make sure you correctly identify a customer as a long-term card counting threat before disrupting his play.

For more information on charting, please feel free in contacting me wzender@aol.com.

Seminars and Workshop

CGA Conference – Protecting Cardroom Table Game Integrity – Monday, October 16^th, 2017 – Hard Rock Lake Tahoe Nevada

I just finalized the material in my presentation at this year’s California Gaming Associations meeting at Lake Tahoe which will be held October 14^th through 16^th. I will be presenting a 60 minute session on Protecting Cardroom Table Game Integrity. The presentation will include different methods that are being used to cheat table games in the California card rooms. This not only concerns poker games, but also the rotating bank games such as baccarat, blackjack, and pai gow poker. The following topics are:

Capturing playing card sequencing
It has become a common attack for cheaters to attempt to capture shuffled card sequencing on high limit games. The captured sequences are used to learn winning hands occurrence before making wagers on the game. The primary game of attack is baccarat, but this techniques have also been used in higher limit blackjack.

Switching hands in Pai Gow Poker
The game of Pai Gow Poker is played with seven cards placed into two separate combinations. What if a player was able to place a large wager on one hand, but have the ability to choose from two separate seven-card hands? In this segment the participants learn how a husband and wife team were able to switch hands without the dealer, floor supervisor, or the designated player questioning their actions.

Protecting Bad Beat and High Hand Jackpots in Poker
Ever have an unusual cluster of “Bad Beat” jackpots occur over a short period of time? Was it a statistical anomaly or was it created by cheaters working with the dealer. Learn how a group of cheaters would set up a “Bad Beat” cooler deck, and what your surveillance personnel need to look for specifically.

Player collusion in Pai Gow tiles
What would happen if a group of Pai Gow players shared their tile information with each other? Do you know what to look for? Learn the primary indicators of a player collusion scam in Pai Gow tiles, and learn what you can do to prevent them from taking advantage of your Pai Gow customers.

At this time I’m not sure whether the presentation will be held in the morning or afternoon session. I will inform everyone of that schedule in next month’s eBlast. I believe you have to be a member of the CGA in order to attend. For more information please contact California Gaming Association, Joe Patterson, Executive Director, (916) 297-4822, www.californiagamingassociation.org/.

Cutting Edge Table Game Seminar – Tuesday, November 14^th, 2017 – Paris Resort – Las Vegas Nevada
I will be presenting once again on the first day of the Cutting Edge Table Games Conference. This is another conference in which I like to present. This year’s session covers a lot of the information presented last year, however I have included the much talked about topic of “Rolling Chip/Dead Chip Programs”. I always like to update my information and slip in topics that I feel need to be covered regarding the operation of table games. Following is an outline of this year’s session:

I. Table Games Mathematics – 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM

House advantage of major casino games
Mechanics that drive hold percentages up (and down).
Table game procedures that waste time and money
Understanding how to optimize side bets
Managing table game minimums to yield the best returns
Calculating risk range for table games and table limits
Determine the best metrics to use in player tracking systems.

Understanding Rolling Chip/Dead Chip Programs – 12:00 PM to 12:30 PM & 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM

What is a Rolling Chip Program?
Understanding Multi-play Chip mathematics
Percent of the Rolling Chip Buy-in that you can use for Player Reinvestment
Points needed before initiating a Rolling Chip Program

III. The Cost of Table Game Promotions – 3:00 PM to 5:30 PM

Effect of changing table game rules
Cost of “value added” promotions
Cost and effect of using Match Play
Cost of using Single Play Promo Chips
The pitfalls of using play-till-you-lose Promo Chips
Problems with discounting player losses
Using an Adjusted T-win model

The conference will be held at the Paris Resort in Las Vegas, November 14^th through 16^th. For more information please go to their website www.tablegamesconf.com/ . I hope to see you in Las Vegas in November.

On the Move
It appears I will have at least one week open each month to the end of the year. I always have time open to conduct winning player reviews. If you have any questions, let me know wzender@aol.com.

October
G2E
Open
California Gaming Association Presentation
Northern California

November
Albuquerque NM
Open
Table Game Cutting Edge Las Vegas
BOD Meeting Arizona

December
Open
Central California
Holidays

Please let me know if I can provide one of my services for your organization.

Questions???

I’m always available to answer your questions. If you have any questions on gaming; don’t hesitate in contacting me through email. I answer close to a half dozen email on gaming every day wzender@aol.com.

Cheers and good luck.

Bill Zender
Bill Zender and Associates
702-423-5734

Blackjack, Events

Game Protection and Card Counter Detection

September 6, 2017 Leave a comment

From Bill Zender and Associates
Bill Zender Newsletter
September 6, 2017

I cannot believe the number of “winning” player evaluations I have conducted this summer. Most of them concerned higher limit blackjack players, but I still had a couple higher limit baccarat players, and one Pai Gow tiles evaluation. Usually the evaluations only confirm what the surveillance department had already concluded; the player in question was experiencing an unusual run of luck, and was no long-term threat to the casino. However, every once and a while I do come upon winning player or players who are winning because they were able to use advantage play techniques (legal but undesirable), or illegal techniques against the house to win that money. I found just that sort of problem while conducting my Pai Gow tiles evaluation. After reviewing all information provided along with several hours of video imaging, I was able to establish that a group of players were actually passing around hand tile information so the group could determine the value of the four tiles in the hand controlled by the dealer. Because of this evaluation, the casino could take the proper steps to neutralize this attack when the group returned to the casino.

Of course winning player evaluations is not the only service I provide. My list of services are as follows;

Table Game Evaluations – The evaluation of your table game operation to determine game protection weaknesses, and opportunities to change specific procedures in order to increase table game revenue potential. I’m surprised more casino executives do not take advantage of this service. The return on investment is outstanding if the customer accepts and implements my suggested procedural changes.

Game Protection Seminars – These seminars are presented to individuals who are responsible for the supervision and protection of table games; i.e., floor supervisors, dual-rates, pit and shift managers, table game managers, surveillance operators and supervisors, gaming investigators, and upper level casino management. The approximate 6+ hours of material covers card counting blackjack and side bets, baccarat side bets, hole-card play in blackjack and alternative games, key-card location play, advantage play and cheating in roulette, cheating in craps, and cheating in blackjack, baccarat, and alternative games. I try to tailor the material specifically for your table game operation, but will show you situations that could result in future problems.

Table Game Management Seminars – I offer a list of topics that I can mix-and-match for your operational need. The most asked for (and important) areas are, the cost of table game promotions, the mechanics that move hold percentage, managing effective side bets in blackjack, understanding game win-loss volatility and loss risk ranges, understanding the effect of time and motion on table game revenue, and the effective strategies for managing table game limits (both minimum and maximum). This is a great session if your organization has some up and coming table game management talent that need to learn the finer points of managing table games.

Remember, I do conduct a lot of individual winning player reviews. All I need is for the casino management/surveillance to send me documentation of the suspected person’s game play, and a video sample of their play. Some casinos are not allowed by regulations to send anyone video segments. In these cases, I can conduct reviews and evaluations from detailed player tracking sheets. If you have any questions about winning player reviews, please feel free to pick up the phone and call me (702-423-5734). I’m more than happy to answer questions about conducting these evaluations for casinos, regulators, or prosecutors looking to build a case against someone violating gaming laws.

If you have a question regarding any of the above services (or anything about table game management or protection), please feel free to contact me at wzender@aol.com, or by phone at 702-423-5734. I look forward to speaking with you.

Your Card Counter Detection Arsenal: The “Third” (and most important) Tool

In this eBlast I will be examining what I believe is the most important of the three tools for detecting card counting. The first two tools were learning and recalling basic strategy perfectly, and understanding the minimum bet spread the professional card counter needs to gain a long-term profit from counting. The third tool involves identifying a correlation between the suspected counter’s bet sizes with that of the person’s hand playing decisions (deviations from basic strategy). The professional level counter will use basic strategy on 4 out of every 5 hands he plays. However, approximately 1 out of 5 hands, the counter will deviate from basic strategy in order to use the remaining card composition in the deck to the counter’s advantage. Note: The counter gains approximately 75% of his advantage from betting more money (a lot more) when the composition of the cards in the deck/shoe are in his favor; however approximately 25% of that gain comes from altering his hand strategy play to the count. Following is how you can use a wager-hand strategy correlation to increase card counter detection from the casino floor significantly.

Situation: You notice that a blackjack player is wagering with a bet spread that will provide him or her with a long-term advantage. For example, the player in question is spreading from one hand of $25 to two hands of $200 ($400 total) for a 16 unit spread. If the player is wagering near the top of his require bet spread, $200 to $400, it could be assumed that the larger wagers indicate the count is “plus” or the deck composition is rich in ten value cards and aces. If the player is wagering near the bottom of his bet spread, it can be assumed that the count is either “minus” or neutral, and is rich in small value cards. Based on these two assumptions, if the suspected player is counting cards he will be seen adhering to the following bet-wager correlation:

– Key hand decisions with a “LARGER” wager placed

Aggressive doubles and splits: 11 v. A, 9 v. 2, 10 v. T, 10 v. A, TT v. 5 & 6 (split).

Passive standing/Aggressive surrendering during some “bust” situations: 16 v. T, 15 v. T, 16 v. 9, and
12 v. 2 & 3.

– Key hand decisions with a “SMALLER” wager placed

Passive double downs (hitting instead): 11 v. A, 11 v. 10, 9 v. 3, and 10 vs. 9.

Aggressive hitting during “bust” or surrender situations: 16 v. T, 15 v. T, 16 v. 9, and 12 v. 4 & 6

Note: These above hand strategy deviations from basic strategy are based on Donald Schlesinger’s “illustrious 18”, the eighteen most important hand deviation decisions a professional card counter can make when counting cards. Several of the above hand decisions noted DO follow basic strategy; they are noted only to illustrate the difference between the two situations, i.e., “larger” bet versus “smaller” bet situations.

As important as these above deviations are to the professional level card counter, the most important…what I call the “million dollar” indicator is…INSURANCE!

Question: What hand totals does the average blackjack player insure? Are the hands 20? Even money? Possibly 19? What about hand totals of 12 through 16? Does the average player ever insure those? Never! But the professional level card counter will. He does not care what his hand total is. He is not trying to protect a good hand like the average player, he is wagering on a side bet (insurance), and bets this side bet when (and only when) there is a high count (Hi/Lo count of +3 or greater). The third tool for detecting card counters can be reduced to this following Game Protection procedure:

If your floor supervisor observes a blackjack player wager a significant amount of money, and this player is seen wagering on insurance when holding a 12 through 16, there is a better than average chance the player is counting cards (or spying the dealer’s hole card).

An “insurance bet” placed while holding a hand of 12 through 16 by a player wagering a significant amount of money is the MOST IMPORTANT indicator that a player might be a card counting threat. If you teach your floor supervisors to look for this one situation, you will greatly increase you professional card counter (and hole-card advantage player) detection.

A review of the final three tools a floor supervisor needs to know to adequately protect the game of blackjack;

Have the supervisors (and surveillance operators) know basic strategy well enough so that they can instantly tell whether or not a BJ player is following basic strategy.
Be sure all floor supervisors know the minimum required bet spread needed by a professional level card counter in which to gain a long-term advantage over the chosen blackjack game (based on game rules and deck penetration).

Have the floor supervisors look for situations where blackjack players wagering a significant amount of money take insurance with a hand of 12 through 16.

Based on these three tools, be sure the floor supervisor is given directions as to who to notify when a “positive” card counting situation occurs. One of the biggest problems in casino gaming is the failure to communicate situations to the right person who can help solve the problem. Remember, you detect problems from the floor, but confirm the problem from surveillance.

In next month’s eBlast, we will look at methods surveillance can use to confirm a person is a professional level card counter.

Seminars and Workshop

University of Nevada Reno Extended Studies: Table Game Management – September 18^th thru 21^st, 2017 – Reno Nevada

In a couple of weeks I will be presenting at the UNR Extended Studies Gaming program regarding table games management. I will be covering the topics of Casino Mathematics and Table Game Management on September 20^th and 21^st. The mathematics portion of this course will dive into the understanding of gambling probabilities, along with converting probabilities into gambling odds. Once odds have been established, we can convert the difference between true odds and payoff odds into a wager’s mathematical house advantage. As far as I’m concerned, house advantage is the money tool for operating table games; however we do examine hold percentage and the factors that contribute to hold percentages move up and (Yuk) down. On the second day, I use the mechanics provided the first day to support theories that will result in increased table game revenue.

I know the staff at UNR’s Extended Studies program will accommodate any last minute requests. Please contact them at gaming@unr.edu, or call 1-800-233-8928. You can also visit the website for more information about gaming management education.

CGA Conference – Protecting Cardroom Table Game Integrity – Monday, October 16^th, 2017 – Hard Rock Lake Tahoe Nevada

Capturing playing card sequencing

It has become a common attack for cheaters to attempt to capture shuffled card sequencing on high limit games. The captured sequences are used to learn winning hands occurrence before making wagers on the game. The primary game of attack is baccarat, but this techniques has also been used in higher limit blackjack.

I’m not sure whether the presentation will be held in the morning or afternoon session, but I will be sure to inform everyone in next month’s eBlast. I believe you have to be a member of the CGA in order to attend. For more information please contact California Gaming Association, Joe Patterson, Executive Director, (916) 297-4822, www.californiagamingassociation.org/.

Cutting Edge Table Game Seminar – Tuesday, November 14^th, 2017 – Paris Resort – Las Vegas Nevada

I will be presenting once again on the first day of the Cutting Edge Table Games Conference. This is another conference in which I like to present. This year’s session covers a lot of the information presented last year, however I have included the much talked about topic of “Rolling Chip/Dead Chip Programs”. I always like to update my information and slip in topics that I feel need to be covered regarding the operation of table games. Following is an outline of this year’s session:

I. Table Games Mathematics – 9:00 AM to 12:00 PM

House advantage of major casino games
Mechanics that drives hold percentage up (and down).
Table game procedures that waste time and money
Understanding how to optimize side bets
Managing table game minimums to yield the best returns
Calculating risk range for table game and table limits
Determine the best metrics to use in player tracking systems.

II. Understanding Rolling Chip/Dead Chip Programs – 12:00 PM to 12:30 PM & 2:00 PM to 3:00 PM

What is a Rolling Chip Program?
Understanding Multi-play Chip mathematics
Percent of the Rolling Chip Buy-in that you can use for Player Reinvestment
Points needed before initiating a Rolling Chip Program

III. The Cost of Table Game Promotions – 3:00 PM to 5:30 PM

Effect of changing table game rules
Cost of “value added” promotions
Cost and affect of using Match Play
Cost of using Single Play Promo Chips
The pitfalls of using play-till-you-lose Promo Chips
Problems with discounting player losses
Using an Adjusted T-win model

The conference will be held at the Paris Resort in Las Vegas, November 14^th through 16^th. For more information please go to their website ~~www.tablegamesconf.com/~~ . I hope to see you in Las Vegas in November.

On the Move
If someone needs me to conduct a Table Games Evaluation or a Game Protection Seminar the second week of this month (September), let me know ASAP and I can still fit you in. Right now my schedule is open for the last week of September, a week in October, and two weeks in November. If you have any questions, let me know wzender@aol.com.

September
Open
University of Nevada Reno
Open

October
G2E
Open
California Gaming Association Presentation
Northern California

November
Open
Open
Table Game Cutting Edge Las Vegas
BOD Meeting Arizona

Please let me know if I can provide one of my services for your organization.

Questions???

I’m always available to answer your questions. If you have any questions on gaming; don’t hesitate in contacting me through email. I answer close to a half dozen email on gaming every day wzender@aol.com.

Cheers and good luck.

Bill Zender
Bill Zender and Associates
702-423-5734

Baccarat, Blackjack

Understanding Blackjack Bet Spread Requirements for a Card Counter in Blackjack

August 2, 2017 Leave a comment

By Bill Zender. ¹⁾EDITOR NOTE: Post below updated in 2023 to reflect Bill Zender’s interesting comments on the state of advantage play.

When I ask table game executives what signs they use to detect that a person is on their tables counting cards, I get the following list of “tells”;

Guys winning a lot of money
Young guy with a baseball cap
Guy sitting on third base
A Guy who watches all the cards

If you agree with this list, you probably are in a position to make a lot of wrong calls to surveillance, or you could be allowing actual professional level card counters to slip through the cracks. Also notice that the previous list is gender specific indicting that it is “guys” who get your attention even though a number of good card counters are women. However, the number one “tell” that I hear from the table game’s executive is “winning a lot of money”. This is not a valid “tell”, although it is a good reason to monitor a person’s table play. When someone is winning, the number one default of table game’s executives is, “he must be counting cards!” I would suggest that 99% of all players winning a large sum of money on your table are due to two factors; (1) their average wager is considered to be “high limits”, and (2) they are running lucky (known as negative statistic fluctuation for the house). Under standard statistical deviation, out of 100 higher limit players, 2 to 3 of them will be beating the casino for a scary amount of money. That’s just the law of normal distribution.

Detection from the casino floor can be accomplished quite easily even with today’s floor supervisory situation (too many player ratings, and too many games to watch). Even under these conditions you can teach your floor supervisors (and surveillance operators) three key tools to use that will increase your card counting detection rate by 200%, and decrease your false positives (think a person is counting when they are not).

The first tool the supervisor needs to learn and be able to recall correctly is basic strategy. In July, I linked a basic strategy examination to my eBlast. The purpose was to allow all my eBlast readers to evaluate the level of basic strategy knowledge among their staff. As I have said before, basic strategy is the foundation of the game of blackjack, and without knowing how each hand should be played, you can’t protect the game of blackjack effectively. You need to be able to watch a person wagering a significant amount of money, and determine if they are a good strategy player, an average strategy player, or are deviating from basic strategy because they are using card or deck composition knowledge to make their hand decision.

The second tool your floor supervisors (and surveillance operators) need to grasp is the required bet spread that the professional level card counter needs to employ to gain an advantage over that specific blackjack game type. Approximately 80% of a card counter’s advantage is gained through wagering more money when he or she has a mathematical advantage over the house based on the remaining cards in the deck or shoe. For example, using a six deck shoe game using standard rules and hitting soft 17 with a deck penetration of 4 ½ decks before shuffling. Approximately 80% of the hands played will be in the house’s favor or neutral (no one’s favor), and 20% of the hands will be in the player’s favor (between slight to 3 ½% player advantage). If the counter does not increase his or her bets, or does increase their bet limitedly during those 20% favorable deck occurrences, they cannot win money in the long-term. In addition, using this same blackjack game and penetration, the professional card count will need to maintain a bet spread ratio of 12 units (example, $25 to $300) to gain a marginal overall win rate (less than 1%). In most cases, that counter will strive to achieve a win rate equal to or in excess of 1%, and opt for a bet spread ratio of at least 16 units (example, $25 to $400) or greater. If the card counter cannot achieve at least a mathematical overall return of 0.8%, counting that game is considered a waste of time and resources.
Following is a table that illustrates approximate bet spread ratios against numbers of decks and deck penetrations;

Blackjack Spread Requirement Ratios

For blackjack games where 6:5 is offered, multiple the maximum level units by 5 (example, 1 deck blackjack 6:5 would require a bet spread ratio of 1 to 20 and 1 to 25 Units).

Next month we will look at the most important of the three tools for detecting card counting, and that is the correlation of bet size to the suspected blackjack player’s hand decisions (deviations from basic strategy).

Simple game protection tips for baccarat

I recently received this email from a casino executive regarding his introduction of the non-commission EZ Baccarat game into his Las Vegas based casino. Even though the casino offers standard 5% commission baccarat, management felt that they could attract more Californian based Asian business if they offered the baccarat format most common in the Golden State. This executive’s question and my reply are as follows:

Question:
Hi Bill, can you email me any new information on EZ Baccarat, and also the Dragon 7 side bet. Also do you have any material on the use of Promos Chips in baccarat? When you come to town next, let’s have diner.

My answer:
Good to hear from you. I heard you are putting in EZ Baccarat. Be sure the dealers understand the three-card 7 banker rule. I’ve seen casinos where the dealers were pushing both the banker and player bets. Be sure they take the players bets with a three-card 7 banker winner.

This is a great game, but just so you know, the Dragon 7 and Panda 8 can be counted successfully using a modified count system. Please read through the attached material, and if you have any questions, let me know. [Note: If any readers want information on detecting counting of the Dragon 7 side bet, email me and I’ll send the information to you.]

BTW, I know most of the scams that have hit California baccarat games. Here’s what you need to do to protect yourself (in any baccarat game for that matter);

Do not use the ribbon spread for inserting the shuffle point indicator card. Have the dealers insert the shuffle point cards approximately 20 cards from the back. Prevents back card location play.
When presenting the decks to be cut, always have the dealer present the cards with his right hand regardless where the customer cutting the cards is sitting. This prevents camera-up-the-sleeve scam.
If possible, use an MD shuffling machine on the game. There are a number of card sequencing cheating moves that can be done by the dealer. Lately, it’s been the camera in the dealer’s shirt or vest.
If you use a squeeze baccarat game, be sure to use an Intelligent shoe. There are a couple of good switch teams working in California (and North America).
Don’t let any of the customers dictate changes in procedure. Think the Ivey edge sort play.
Be careful of California junket reps who insist on giving their players promotional chips. Know the cost before agreeing to any promotions of this nature.
If it looks like marketing wants to start a “rolling chip/dead chip” program, let me know because I just put out some information on the mathematics and short comings of that program.

Rolling chip programs are, in actuality, a different form of player rating system; however a number of junket reps in California are insisting on a rolling chip program, so they can put money into their own pockets. Imagine that! Many of the junket reps out of the LA area are bandits. Count on it.

Questions???

I’m always available to answer your questions. If you have any questions on gaming; don’t hesitate in contacting me through email. I answer close to a half dozen email on gaming every day wzender@aol.com.

Cheers and good luck.

Bill Zender and Associates
702-423-5734

CASINO PAYPAL

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Footnotes[+]

Footnotes
↑1	EDITOR NOTE: Post below updated in 2023 to reflect Bill Zender’s interesting comments on the state of advantage play.

Blackjack, Casinos, Events

Blackjack Basic Strategy – Is It Important?

July 5, 2017 Leave a comment

From Bill Zender’s email discussing his upcoming activities and events.

July 5, 2017

Dear Friends and Business Associates,

I hope everyone is doing well. First off, I want to give the University of Nevada Reno’s Extended Studies course in Casino Management a recommendation, especially the Table Game Management course that is scheduled to be held in Reno Nevada September 18^th thru 21^st. Earlier this spring the course was pushed back to September because it lacked participants. I’ve been involved with this University of Nevada program for the past fourteen years, and I feel that it is the best casino management program in the country, if not the world. The week session in which I will be participating, features two other individuals involved in that week’s presentation whom I believe do an outstanding job.

On Monday, September 18^th, Bob Ellsworth presents a session regarding the overview of casino table games. Bob Ellsworth shows the students all aspects of table games and procedures that the gaming professional needs to understand in order to operate an efficient table game operation. On day 2, September 19^th, Bob Del Rossi presents an outstanding session on table game protection. He covers all the common methods used to attack table games, and drills down into the different “indicators” that table game and surveillance personal need to identify in order to catch and stop both legal and illegal intrusions. On September 20^th and 21^st, I conduct my presentations on table game mathematics and methods for better managing table games (see descriptions of those session below). As you can see, the four days of table game training are quite invaluable to the novice table games and surveillance executives, as well as the more experienced individuals looking for ways to improve their operations.

Second, I want everyone to know that you have a rare opportunity in August and September in which I have plenty of weeks open to conduct work. If you are considering in-house training sessions on game protection, or areas table game management, please contact me. Right now I have about six weeks open this late summer. It’s also a golden opportunity to have me come to your property to conduct a table game operation evaluation. I have conducted a number of these evaluations over the past several years for several casinos throughout North America. If you want to know how to better position your table games to be safer, and at the same time create opportunities for greater revenue potential, please let me know.

Remember, I always have time to conduct “winning” player evaluations. Just recently I conducted an evaluation on some high limit Pai Gow tiles play that indicated that the players involved were passing along hand information in order to determine the dealer’s hand. Sometimes it a good thing to get a second opinion.

Blackjack Basic Strategy: Is it Important?
During a casual discussion with a table games manager in a Northwestern casino, he asked me how important it is for the floor supervisor to know basic strategy. His contention was that since most ratings systems in blackjack don’t require a player skill evaluation, he didn’t understand why the floor supervisors should learn basic strategy and be tested on that knowledge. He also related that his casino had recently given all floor supervisors and pit executives a basic strategy test, and the result was dismal at best. He also experienced a lot of negative feedback from his staff regarding being tested in the first place. Is knowledge of the “exact” plays regarding basic strategy really that important?

Based on my 40 years of experience in blackjack as dealer, floor supervisor, casino executive, professional level advantage player, and a game protection expert, the answer is YES! The foundation of the game of blackjack is anchored around the customer’s ability to make hand decisions accurately. Without knowing how the customer should play each and every hand decision, the floor supervisor, casino executive, and surveillance operator will not be able to determine a customer’s level of blackjack skill. Subsequently, they will be unable to detect most situations of advantage play and cheating.

Experienced blackjack customers use two different types of strategy to play their hands; (1) basic strategy, the computer calculated best hand strategy based on the player’s two-cards (or sometimes more) and the dealer’s up-card, and (2) common strategy, the more popular strategy derived from some understanding of basic strategy and table observation of other players. I will go out on a limb and suggest that approximately 90-95% of all blackjack players use common strategy when deciding how to play their hands, and only a small percentage of players (1-2%) use perfect basic strategy. What the floor supervisor, casino executive, and surveillance professional need to be able to do is identify which strategy style each blackjack player uses. Customers who use a common strategy are normally no threat to the casino while basic strategy players know more about the game than the casual blackjack player, and may extend their knowledge further into areas of advantage play, and possibly cheating.

Following is a link to a blackjack strategy examination I have created. The purpose of this examination is to determine whether your table game or surveillance employees can spot the difference between a non-threating blackjack customer who uses a common strategy, or that of a potential threating customer who follows basic strategy. The link to the blackjack strategy examination and answer sheet are as follows: Blackjack Strategy Examination.¹⁾Bill Zender’s Blackjack Strategy Examination appears to be no longer available. It was previously at http://billzender.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1a57e68a82b308dad579ff3af&id=b117a76687&e=dffc884c7f . Please feel free to download and use this blackjack strategy examination at your property. If you have any questions, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Note: A professional level card counter will use basic strategy 4 out of 5 hands while deviating that one hand out of five based on the count. Advantage players will also use perfect basic strategy, however APs obtaining the dealer’s hole-card may use neither basic nor common, but exhibit hand strategies based on advanced knowledge of the hole-card. Cheaters will use basic strategy up until the point where their cheating technique require them to do otherwise. The cheater uses basic strategy to give back the minimum amount of money to the casino until they can apply their illicit trade.

Why can’t we beat this guy!!!
Here is an email correspondence that needs to be passed along to everyone on my email list. I received this email from a casino executive regarding a winning higher limit player in blackjack. For a consultant like myself, this type of email is very common. A higher limit customer is winning a large amount of money, and upper management does not understand why anyone could be beating the house, especially if the house losing streak has continued through several of the customer’s visits. The executive’s question and my answer to his situation are as follows.

Question:
I believe I know the answer to this but it would be great to hear it from the expert. Assuming we can rule out collusion, card marking, card counting, and shuffle tracking. Can a player with a large bankroll overcome the HA by only attempting to win a small amount.

We are under new ownership and I would like to give the new ownership some piece of mind other than “it’ll come around”. We have a handful of regular, well known, lifetime losers with that play style. They will win 20K several days in a row and historically will blow 200-300K when they lose. We are playing unlucky in 2016 with our top 3 players and the questions are coming in. There hasn’t been any rule or procedural change. I look forward to hearing from you.

My answer:
Don’t think for a moment you are the only Table Games Director with this problem. I guess the basic answer is that some players win for periods of time, and that’s why it’s called “gambling”. There will always be an “element of uncertainty” in the business. Statistically, within 10,000 hand decisions in a game like blackjack, 16% of all players will be below -1 standard deviation. This usually means those players are beating the casino, and doing so while still playing against the casino’s natural mathematical edge. Taking the normal distribution curve further, 2-3% of your players will be winning below even the -2 standard deviation point. If you have 100 higher limit players, based on statistics, two or three of those players will be big winners.

What I usually suggest in this situation is that you use two primary strategies; first, conduct an evaluation of all possible and logical ways of gaining a player’s edge over the game in question. In blackjack that would be card counting, hole-carding, location play, marked cards, collusion, etc.
Put together a concise report to present to upper management with your findings that nothing can be detected.

Second, go back historically and build a profile of the player or similar past players to show that the games will “turn around” eventually. Be sure to point out periods when a player has lost back a lot of his winnings. Players who gamble with an advantage or down right cheat, do not gamble back a large percentage of their past wins. I would use periods of loss-back of 50% of previous winnings or better as strong evidence the player is a desirable gambler and not playing with an advantage.

Another course of action could be the need to “educate” non-table games executive in the games and the slime mathematical edge of the games. Right now with your region’s BJ rules the average high limit BJ player is subject to a mathematical house advantage of 0.3% to 1.0% depending on how good or poorly he makes hand strategy decisions (baccarat is around 1.2%). In comparison with slot machines, the average slot machine “floor PAR” in your region is about 10-12%.

Statistically speaking, the average 1% H/A% player could be winning at maximum risk after about 8,000 hands while the guaranteed win point is around 40,000 hand decisions. If the BJ player was a good hand strategy player and drove the expected H/A% down to 0.5%, the maximum risk and guaranteed win point could be as much as 16,000 hands and 80,000 hands respectively.

There’s my two cents on the topic. If you want me to conduct a player evaluation, let me know, and if you need me to conduct a table game evaluation at your casino, feel free to contact me so we can set something up. Take care and good luck with your situation.

Seminars and Workshop

I am still considering conducting a seminars on the cost of casino promotions along with a section on Dead Chip/Rolling Chip programs somewhere in the USA, preferably in Las Vegas. I’m also looking to conduct another Optimal Baccarat Seminar somewhere in the East or Midwest. Please watch for future eBlast to find out what seminars, dates, and locations will be offered.

University of Nevada Reno Extended Studies: Table Game Management – September 18^th thru 21^st, 2017 – Reno Nevada

I always enjoy presenting at the UNR Extended Studies Gaming program regarding table games management. The students are from different gaming regions throughout North American, and occasionally, from around the world. I will be covering the topics of Casino Mathematics and Table Game Management on September 20^th and 21^st. Following are the topics covered during my portion of the four-day program:

Hold-percentage analysis as a management tool
Game probability and profitability factors
Game selection, location, mix and pricing
Marketing strategies and customer development
Customer service strategies and applications
Maximizing department profitability and efficiency
Casino database management for table games

As I mentioned previously, these are the days I will be presenting; however, to attend you need to sign up for the entire week’s program. I truly believe that price and time spent in this University of Nevada Extended Studies program is well worth it.
See the Gaming Management Series overview for a full schedule of upcoming courses. Email gaming@unr.edu, call 1-800-233-8928 or visit the website for information about gaming management education from the University of Nevada, Reno.

On the Move
Summer is a slower time for me so if you are looking for a game protection or table game management seminar, or need your table games evaluated, this is the perfect time to contact me. Right now all my available time slots in July are filled, but my schedule is wide open for August and September. If you have any questions, let me know wzender@aol.com.

July
South Dakota
Las Vegas BOD Meeting
Northern California

August
Open
Las Vegas BOD Meeting
Open
Open

September
Open
Open
University of Nevada Reno
Open

Please let me know if I can provide one of my services for your organization.

Questions???

I’m always available to answer your questions. If you have any questions on gaming; don’t hesitate in contacting me through email. I answer close to a half dozen email on gaming every day wzender@aol.com.

Cheers and good luck.

Bill Zender
Bill Zender and Associates
702-423-5734

Footnotes[+]

Footnotes
↑1	Bill Zender’s Blackjack Strategy Examination appears to be no longer available. It was previously at http://billzender.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=1a57e68a82b308dad579ff3af&id=b117a76687&e=dffc884c7f .

Blackjack, Casinos, Events, Other Games

Use of Rolling Chips in North America

June 6, 2017 Leave a comment

From Bill Zender’s email discussing his upcoming activities and events.

June 6, 2017

Dear Friends and Business Associates,

I am sorry that I haven’t kept in touch with everyone. Between closing out my house in Las Vegas and working abroad, I didn’t have much time in which to pen my usual monthly eBlasts. Now things have settled down, and I have some much needed breathing space. I can start catching up with my normal routine which involves keeping everyone informed of my availability (for my benefit), and to discuss some of the issues and problems I have seen in the gaming industry over the last several months (hopefully, your benefit).

The Use of Rolling Chips in North America

Attached to June’s eBlast is a link to a report I just finished. Over the past spring, it has come to my attention that a number of North American casino operators are searching for information on the use of non-negotiable chips in conjunction with a marketing program known in other parts of the world as “rolling chip” or “dead chip” programs. The rolling chip/dead chip program is used extensively overseas to market and track high limit VIP baccarat customers. A number of casinos have started similar programs domestically here in the USA and Canada. I have also realized that the motivation to enter into a rolling chip program is stemming from requests by junket representatives, and marketers who work outside the casino operations. In some instances, this could turn out to be a costly situation for the casinos.

These junket reps have informed the different casino marketing departments that they can provide a number of high limit baccarat players if the casino offers this non-negotiable chip form of player tracking. Unfortunately, many executives in casino operations who have either started the rolling chip programs or are strongly considering starting one, are misinformed as to the mathematics behind rolling chip “theoretical win” (T-win) projections, and are relying on the outside promoters and marketers for this information. As one can imagine, this presents a seriously dangerous situation for the casino operators.

Because of this disturbing trend, I have compiled a report, or “white paper” if you may, that discusses several issues everyone considering entering the rolling chip/dead chip program needs to know. The link is as follows: Rolling Chip Program in North America. For some reason, a very inflated T-win percentage has been “floating” around that I’m having difficulty in pinning down the mathematics. The higher percentage might be related to the mathematical win difference between the standard 5% Banker commission game, and the 1 to 2 Banker payoff on the “Punto Banco 6” version that is used extensively in Asia. Regardless of the way it is calculated, the higher T-win percentage projects a higher than expected game revenue potential that subsequently helps to falsely support higher commission paybacks to either the customer or the junket rep (or both). In many cases, domestic casinos are giving back a “lions share” of the win potential to outside interests while maintaining 100% of the gaming “risk”. It is in the best interest of anyone entering into or considering a rolling chip program to read this report.

Marking Cards in Face-up Blackjack

A week ago I received an email from a casino executive who inquired about possible marked playing cards he had recently found on a face-up game of blackjack. This is the second time I’ve heard about this possible scam in the last several months. I think his question and my reply needs to be read by everyone on my eBlast list. The question he sent me will be followed by my reply to him.

Question:
I have something that came up that has me really stumped. While sorting cards from a six deck game at the end of the shift, one of the dealers found that a number of cards had a dimple or dent in the middle of the backs of the cards. The cards were a number of 10s through Aces but not all. When we went back over the play on that table, we only had one player betting black chips, but he won several thousand dollars. Surveillance ran the player down for counting but found nothing. My question is how would only a certain group of cards get dented like that in a face up game, and do you think we might have been hit by cheaters? I haven’t seen anything like this before.

Reply:
There is a strong possibility you experienced a card marking team. If the tens and aces were dented, the cheater were probably using a “top card” marking system. If a card sitting on top of the shoe is marked (dented) the player sitting in first seat (before the shoe) will wager up to maximum bet, and if the card is not marked, the player will wager around their minimum bet. Not all the cards are marked because it takes a long time to make sure all the “target” cards are marked.

Usually with this scam, the cheaters send in a team of players who “dent” the faces of the cards hours before the play actually goes down when the table has minimum action. They dent the cards by hitting the faces of the cards with a chip or the tip of their fingers. By denting the face of the playing card, one also creates a dent on the back of the card as well. Cards marked in this manner must be read while in the window of the shoe when glare from overhead lighting reflects off the dent or bend. After several shoes (and hours of play), the card marking team leaves the game.

As I mentioned previously, hours later the cheaters return with their “big player”. They approach management and request a higher limit (sometimes). Then they either get a private game for the big player, or have him sit in the first seat position in order to always receive the first card (top card) of the shoe. A second cheater either stands or sits at the table around 5^th/6^th position to read the top card of the shoe. When the top card is dented (marked), he signals the big player to place a maximum bet. This gives the cheaters an approximate 20% edge on that wager. If the team marking the cards is able to mark 70% of the tens and aces, a marked card will appear as the top card prior to the next hand about 25% of the time.

If you still have the video of the black chip customer’s play, see if there is a correlation between his increase in wager size, and the appearance of a ten or ace as his first card. If so, then you need to go back over the entire day to see if you can spot the cheaters who marked the game. You may be able to get enough video evidence to take it to the authorities. If you have any other questions, please let me know. Good luck with your review.

Unfortunately, I never heard back from this individual so I don’t know whether or not his surveillance personnel found anything suspicious. Some executives believe that marking cards in a face-up game is impossible. This is not true. Although the act of hitting the face-up card in plain sight is obvious, these teams train to make the move look like a show of excitement, or pointing out a “lucky” card to their friend. Here is more information on the scam setup:

First, the cheaters must find a table where the overhead light shines down and reflects off the top card of the shoe.

Second, the cheaters have to mark up the cards using a highly overt action of touching the face of the cards as they lay on the table. This motion is usually done at the moment the dealer starts his/her bet settlement process. The card markers will sit in the last two positions on the table and will usually control two to three hands. The cheaters have to mark the cards without drawing suspicion to their intentions so they may use several different players over a several hour period.

Third, hours later they will confirm the marked cards are still on the game, and if so, have their “big player” buy-in and play the first hand positon.

I hope the information in this email, reply, and follow up comments gives you better insight into protecting your blackjack games.

Seminars and Workshop
As of today, I have no public seminars or workshops planned. Since I do have some open time this summer and early fall, I may look to holding a Game Protection or Table Games Management class in different areas of the country outside of Las Vegas. Please watch for future eBlast to find out what seminars, dates, and locations will be available.

On the Move
The dog days of summer are upon me. Right now I’m almost filled for June, but have a couple of weeks in July, and the most part of August open. If you have any questions, let me know wzender@aol.com.

June
Maryland
Washington DC
Northern California

July
Las Vegas BOD Meeting
Northern California

August
Northern California
Las Vegas BOD Meeting

Usually, I’m pretty much booked two months in advance. As you see I have a bit of time open throughout the summer. Please let me know if I can provide one of my services for your organization.

Questions???

I’m always available to answer your questions. If you have any questions on gaming; don’t hesitate in contacting me through email. I answer close to a half dozen email on gaming every day wzender@aol.com.

Cheers and good luck.

Bill Zender
Bill Zender and Associates
702-423-5734

Blackjack Review

Tag Archives: Bill Zender

Single Play Promo and Free Play Chips

Bill Zender Newsletter – December 20, 2018

Bill Zender on the One2Six Shufflers

How Casinos can be Sure a Person is Counting?

By Bill Zender

Game Protection and Card Counter Detection

Understanding Blackjack Bet Spread Requirements for a Card Counter in Blackjack

Blackjack Basic Strategy – Is It Important?

Use of Rolling Chips in North America

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