Ubalo Count Synopsis and System Comparisons
by Dr. Brett Harris
The Ubalo is an unbalanced counting system for the Over/Under 13 game.
The main problem with the usual balanced counts such as the Crush, is that the Over/Under opportunities usually occur near the end of the shoe, making accurate true count conversion extremely critical.
The reason O/U is so profitable is due to something called volatility, that is the advantage changes very rapidly, and so a small error in your estimate of the true count can cost you dearly.
The Ubalo works in a similar way to Red7 or K-O for ordinary blackjack. It allows you to know when the Over bet is favorable WITHOUT true count conversion, that is whenever the RUNNING count is above the pivot value, you know it is ok to bet the over, no matter how many cards are left in the shoe. It can be used in this way very profitably without any true count at all, and the Ubalo package includes running count indices for various numbers of decks and penetrations.
The Ubalo, using running count along, is able to outperform the Crush count, and is on par with other balanced level-2 systems. Indeed, since there are no errors associated with true count conversion, it will likely outperform all excisting level-2 systems when used in real world conditions.
And it can perform even better for experienced players.
Played in true count mode, the Ubalo is the best level-2 Over/Under count around, and it is the easiest to use.
I have put together a booklet containing full instructions on how to use the Ubalo, it contains all information necessary to play in both running and true count modes, statistical information such as EV(expected value) and VAR(variance) which can be used to determine optimal bets, and other bits of information such as multiple hand covariance etc..
Here are some comparisons between the Ubalo and other Over/Under systems.
Correlation’s of various systems
Clearly, the over optimized systems have the same value for (A,2,3), whereas the under optimized systems have (A,2) the same. All of these systems, apart from the Ubalo, are balanced counts which necessitate true count conversion in order to detect the favorable situations. Provided they are played accurately, all can provide reasonable profit potential. However, they must be played accurately, particularly in situations with good penetration. The volatility of the game punishes true count conversion errors mercilessly.
Here is a comparison between the various systems. The game is 6 deck, 67% penetration, DAS, DOA, no surrender. All systems use their own 26 playing strategy indices including insurance, but since the playing efficiency of any O/U count is in the 20% range, this really makes little difference.
Bet proportionally, the minimum bet is $10, and maximum is $100.
Since the Over is the much more profitable play than the Under, that it is much better optimize the count for the Over rather than the Under. The Crush, being optimized for the Under does rather poorly compared to the other level two counts.
The Ubalo has the best Over correlation for the level two counts, which aside from ease of use, also makes it the best count at this level.
Count (A) has the best Under correlation at this level, but the relative lack of profitability of the Unders, explains why Ubalo does a little better.
Count (C) is the best level 3 count optimized for the Over, and clearly outperforms all the others. Not mentioned here, there is a level 4 count which is optimized for the Under, and has a performance similar to (C).