By Katie Howe.
At a physical blackjack table, you, as an experienced player, may be able to see the shoe, the cut card, the shuffle, the discard tray, and how deeply the shoe is being dealt. On the face of it, a live dealer stream provides much of this information, but first looks can be misleading.
Stepping back and asking a key question will illuminate things: how much deck penetration can you actually determine from a live online blackjack stream? After all, there is a clear difference between observation and guesswork, no matter how educated you feel it is. Even if you know the deck count, you still need to know how deeply the shoe is dealt before the shuffle is made.
Why the deck penetration matters more than the number on the shoe
Deck penetration covers the amount of the available shoe that is dealt prior to the remaining cards being removed and the shoe being shuffled or replaced. For example, if you have six decks in play and approximately three of them remain undealt at the time the shuffle occurs, we can say that the penetration is approximately 50%. But if only one deck in the six-deck game remains untouched, the penetration is markedly different.
The more cards that are exposed, the more information is included in the running count. You may be able to more accurately estimate the remaining deck composition, and favorable or unfavorable playing conditions may become easier to identify. And if the penetration is low, you have less information and a reduced ability to understand the nature of the remaining cards. All of this can be factored into your decision of whether or not to adopt a card counting system.
A live stream does not provide everything
A live dealer stream can let you see the cards leaving the shoe and those that are entering the discard tray, as well as approximately how much of the shoe is left. You can also see when the shoe is taken out, manual shuffle and replacement shoes, and how many rounds are played before the next shuffle.
Compare this to RNG blackjack, and the difference lies in the fact that, when you are playing, you can see at least some of the physical dealing actions. However, it’s important to note that when it comes to real-time casino gaming, being able to see a physical card does not reveal the full entirety of the operating procedure.
What can still lie outside the frame
The video stream may not tell you the original deck count or the precise cut-card depth, and it may not tell you how cards were handled before the table opened for play. There may also be equipment used that is outside of the viewing angle of the camera, and you may not know if changes to procedures are made between shoes and across tables.
Penetration estimates with repeated shoes
An experienced observer may reasonably estimate penetration by noting things such as the apparent shoe size, the number of rounds, and how many occupied positions there are. They may also look at where the dealing comes to an end and the consistency of the apparent shuffle point. There is, however, a clear limitation to such an approach.
Observing one shoe is not enough
The cards that are used up in any given round will naturally vary as a result of players hitting different numbers of times, doubles adding cards, and splitting to create more hands. The dealer draws will vary too, as will the number of occupied spots. The result is that counting rounds is not the same thing as counting individual cards, even if repeated observation of shoes may, at times, provide a reasonable estimate.
The cut card matters only if it is visible
The cut card can indicate the point at which the dealer stops and resets the shoe, but it might only appear briefly during a live stream. There may also be times when it is out of sight because of the placement of the shoe, or it is inserted prior to the start of the stream. If you cannot directly observe it, it cannot be verified, and the penetration in the game has to be estimated based on which cards are being dealt prior to the shuffle.
Continuous shuffling changes the landscape
While a conventional shoe will remove the dealt cards from play until it is reset, the use of a continuous shuffling system means that dealt cards can be put back into the pool. If they are returned, traditional shoe-based penetration becomes largely redundant and of little use.
The importance of not identifying a CSM from appearances
Just because the shuffle looks fast and you think you recognize the machine does not guarantee you are playing with a CSM. You may be seeing a batch shuffler that is preparing a different shoe, for example. If you are not sure of what you are seeing, accept this as a gap in your information rather than attempting to plug it with an educated guess.
Published rules and visible procedures have to be checked separately
Published table information contains some information, and the stream has additional data points, but neither is comprehensive. The published info can tell you things like the payout, doubling rules, and number of rules, while the stream can help you to judge the pace of the play, shuffle frequency, and approximate penetration.
The key point is that you need to combine these two sources of information with regular and repeated observation. Doing so will never be a guarantee of a win, but it will help you come to a more balanced, reasoned judgement about how you wish to proceed.
Serious players use the stream as evidence, not as 100% proof
Rather than blindly making decisions during a live blackjack stream, ask yourself the following questions:
- Can I verify the number of decks?
- Can I see when the shoe begins and ends?
- Can I actually see the cut card?
- How many complete shoes have I seen?
- How consistent is the shuffle point?
- Am I observing a real procedure?
- Am I assuming how unseen equipment is working?
Doing so will ensure that you are constantly aware of the difference between a provable fact and an estimate or inference. It will also remove the temptation to try to reduce the number of unknowns in your analysis by moving from estimates based on solid information to guesswork.
IMAGE CREDIT: Wikimedia Commons