By R. Vidal.
For centuries, card players have been mesmerized by the game of blackjack. However, with that allure comes an abundance of false ideas that can wipe out your bankroll quicker than you can say “hit me.” These myths endure because the way they feel makes sense, but they are mathematically incorrect. Over the long run, these beliefs can cost a player a lot of money. Let’s review the most costly blackjack myths, and substitute them for facts mathematically supported.
The Hot and Cold Streak Fallacy
One of the most common myths in blackjack is the idea of “hot” and “cold” streaks. Players assume, after losing a series of hands, that they are “due” for a win, while a series of winning hands gives players the notion to keep betting big because they are “running hot”.
This reasoning is based on the gambler’s fallacy, a belief that the outcome of prior independent events (dealing of cards) influences subsequent outcomes. In blackjack, the dealing of cards and a hand in blackjack is considered independent events, assuming you are shuffling properly. Cards have no memory and simply don’t care about how much you lost or won in the previous hands.1)EDITOR NOTE: It is true that the cards don’t care if you won or lost in previous hands. However, they do have a memory. If the Ace of Spades has been dealt from a single deck game, we know it will not be dealt again until after the deck is shuffled. Only for games that are “continuously” shuffled or RNG based, the cards have no memory that can be exploited.
Take this scenario: you lost five hands in a row, and busted with 22 every hand. Your mind is saying that the sixth hand has to be different; however, your chances are the same mathematically speaking. If the blackjack basic strategy indicates that you have a 48% chance of winning any given hand, that percentage cannot change based on the results of the hand that came before it.
Further, many online casinos use continuous shuffle machines inspired by systems used in real money slots so tracking cards is impossible, and each hand is unaffected by the last hand.
That way of thinking is money losing because despite losing, a player is likely to raise their bets, thinking they are ‘due’ to win on the sixth hand, or not raise their bets after winning a hand, because they don’t want their lucky streak to end. Your optimal betting strategy should be based on your bankroll management structure, not on erroneous gambling patterns that simply don’t exist.
The Insurance Bet Trap
Insurance bets are one of the most expensive misunderstandings in blackjack. When the dealer turns over an ace, the players have the option to make an insurance bet up to half of their original bet. In the event the dealer has blackjack, insurance will pay 2:1, as if to protect your original money.
Many players confuse the word protect to mean safety, as many players will think to themselves that they are protecting their good hand or monster hand (like 20) against the dealer’s blackjack. The reasoning appears logical: “I can protect my good hand against the dealer’s blackjack.” Instead, math tells us something else entirely and which is also illustrated in one of the best movies of the casino industry.
To have a positive expectation in insurance, the dealer must have a 10-value card (10, Jack, Queen, or King) face down greater than one-third of the time. With a single deck, we know there are usually 16 10-value cards, after viewing your cards and the dealer’s Ace out of the remaining 49 cards. This provides the dealer with a 10-value card around 32.7% of the time and a negative expectation for insurance over the course of the game.
Misunderstanding Dealer Behavior
Another costly myth is misunderstanding dealer tendencies and standards of play. Some players believe dealers are “lucky” or “unlucky,” or that some dealers are “hot” against players. Others believe they can determine the outcome of a dealer if they can see the dealer’s first card or based on the performance of the last hand the dealer had.
The truth is that a dealer must adhere to strict rules with no discretion. A dealer must hit on 16 and stand on 17 (hit soft 17 in some casinos). These rules do not change no matter what the dealer did in the previous hand or any theory about being “lucky.”
The misjudgment of dealer bust rates is equally costly. Many players think that dealers bust often and therefore play in a similar manner. However, the actual statistics are more complicated than that. When a dealer shows a small card (2 through 6), they will bust about 35% to 42% of the time. Whereas when they show a strong card (7 through ace), they will bust only 23% to 26% of the time.
You should let this knowledge influence your strategy. When facing a dealer weak card, stand at lower totals because the dealer has a higher chance of busting. When facing a strong dealer card, you will want to be more aggressive in your strategy because the dealer will probably make a good hand.
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Footnotes
| ↑1 | EDITOR NOTE: It is true that the cards don’t care if you won or lost in previous hands. However, they do have a memory. If the Ace of Spades has been dealt from a single deck game, we know it will not be dealt again until after the deck is shuffled. Only for games that are “continuously” shuffled or RNG based, the cards have no memory that can be exploited. |
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