How to Beat the Odds: A Look at Smart Sports Betting Strategies

By Sadie Smith.

From the underdog tactic to the lesser-known strategies, this is your insider’s look at how to bet smarter, not harder.

Sports betting isn’t luck, it’s an art. Sure, the howl of a last-second goal or buzzer-beating shot might appear like complete chaos, but smart bettors know that there is method to the madness. If you’ve ever felt like your sports bets were a little too hit-or-miss, or if you’re just starting and want to do it right, it’s time to step up your strategy game. Whether you’re riding on the NFL or sweating over a five-set tennis match, the right approach can seriously boost your odds, and your bankroll.

A lot of poker chips

Know the classics: Proven-and-timeless sports betting tips

The value betting method

If you can remember just one sporting rule when it comes to sports betting, it’s this: Don’t bet to win, bet on value. A value bet occurs when you believe that the bookmaker’s offered odds are greater than the actual probability of an event occurring.

Let’s say a sportsbook posts a team at +300 to win (a 25% likelihood), but through research, you feel they have a 40% chance. That is a value bet. Over time, wagering on value (even if the team does not always win) profits you.

It takes patience and the sharp ability to spot mispriced odds. It isn’t glamorous, but it is one of the only methods endorsed by mathematics.

The Martingale system

Any old-timer gambler will be familiar with this one. The Martingale system is simple: If you lose at a bet, double up next time. Eventually, you’ll win and this win should recoup all losses already incurred and earn you a profit equal to your initial bet.

Sounds great, right? Wrong. The biggest weakness is that it assumes you have an unlimited bankroll and no betting limits, neither of which are possible for the majority of people. However, some players like this method for short games or small bets.1)EDITOR NOTE: The Martingale system is one strategy that we have never recommended.  It is one gambling strategy that is most likely to get you into serious trouble.

Flat betting

Flat betting is the straightforward approach to betting the same amount per game, regardless of how sure you are. It’s boring, but it’s reliable, and reliability is underestimated in sports betting.

The best thing about flat betting is that it doesn’t allow your emotions to take over. No loss chasing, no doubling up for excitement. It’s slow and steady all the way, especially for newbies who don’t have the funds to blow.

Tools of the trade: Where you place your bets matters

Even with a sound strategy, your platform of choice does matter. Odds, offers, variety of bets, it all adds up. One popular choice among experienced punters is Betway betting, a website that boasts an enormous range of sports betting opportunities like soccer, rugby, tennis, basketball and loads more.

Betway also enables it to track live odds with ease, place in-play wagers and watch sports from around the world, which is especially useful if you are trying to exploit lesser-attended leagues where the books are not so sharp. It’s responsive, reliable and does not overwhelm you with bells and whistles.

Digging deeper: Sneaky strategies that actually work

The Contrarian strategy

This is for individuals who like to zig while the rest of the mob zags. The contrarian strategy is public-be-damned betting. Why? Because sportsbooks move lines to fit public sentiment. If most recreational players are loading up on a side, the line can shift, making the other side value.

Assuming 80% of the money is pouring in on the Lakers. The line may shift in their favor, even though the real odds didn’t really increase much. A contrarian would take the opposite side, assuming the public overreacted.

Arbitrage betting

This one’s for the spreadsheet nerds and smart punters who love math almost as much as they love the games themselves. Arbitrage betting, or “arbing,” involves betting on all possible outcomes of an event at different sportsbooks so that there’s a profit no matter what happens.

How? Because book odds vary from book to book. For example, suppose Book A offers +110 on Team A and Book B offers +110 on Team B. You set your stakes so that if either of them succeeds, your return is more than the total bet.

It is too good to be true, and it is in a way, arbing consumes your time and sportsbooks will close or ban your account if you keep on doing it. However, it’s a real strategy for the highly disciplined.

The Kelly criterion

Another more mathematical strategy, the Kelly Criterion helps you make decisions on how much to bet based on your edge and odds. It’s value betting’s smart cousin.

The formula calculates your perceived odds, compares them to the book’s lines and gives you a best-bet size. It prevents over-betting, which is how everyone loses their bankroll and optimizes your long-term gain.

There is some math (and spreadsheets), but if you are committed to betting for the long haul, it is worth learning.

Bonus advice from the betting frontlines

Shop for lines: Different books have different odds. Always shop before you wager, it’s like price-checking at the TV shopping center.

Keep a record of your bets: Use a betting record book or download programs to monitor your bets, outcomes and reasoning. You will notice trends in your losses and wins.

Don’t bet drunk or on tilt: Something that doesn’t need to be said, but you’d be amazed. Emotional gambling is bankroll poison.

Stay on familiar ground: You’ll always be more adept at leagues or sports you’re familiar with. That one game of Finnish ice hockey might sound appealing, but if you have absolutely no clue about the teams, don’t invest in it.

IMAGE CREDIT: Pexels.com

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Footnotes

Footnotes
↑1EDITOR NOTE: The Martingale system is one strategy that we have never recommended.  It is one gambling strategy that is most likely to get you into serious trouble.

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