How much money can I expect to win if I count cards?

Copyright © 1994 – 2017By Michael Dalton All Rights Reserved
FAQ 9: Originally published in Volume 6 Issue 2 of Blackjack Review Magazine
RETURN TO THE BLACKJACK FAQ

moneyinhand.gif (10331 bytes)To be perfectly honest, you stand a fair chance of losing money in this game! It all depends on your skill level, bankroll, the level of risk you are willing to take, and the quality of games you play. Assuming you balance all of these factors, the theoretical long-run advantage a skilled card counter can obtain is between 0.5% and 1.5%. This is not to say a player can not have a greater advantage on any individual bet or circumstance, however, in the long run a player can expect to win about 1% of the total sum of his “action”. Therefore, if your average bet is about $25 and you play 75 hands an hour you might expect to make about $19 an hour. But be forewarned… your mileage will vary!

I generally tell players that they can expect a winning streak as often as a losing streak in this game. You will often go for days, if not weeks and possibly even months questioning your ability because of losses. But you will also go through periods where you will feel invincible and unable to lose. During both of these periods your discipline will be severely tested. In the long run, if you are a good player, are not being cheated, and can get away with it, you should show a profit.

Basic card counting is not the only legal way to make money at this game. You can milk the comp system. You can use casino coupons. You can shuffle track. You can join a team. You can take advantage of dealer errors and mistakes. You can exploit casino promotions and new variations. I would estimate that it is possible to achieve at least a 2% win-rate in blackjack if you are an advanced player and use some of the above tricks and methods.

Milking the comp system is a true art form. It is getting tougher these days due to computers, however, it is still possible to achieve more than your fair share of comps. According to Max Rubin, author of Comp City, more than half a million dollars worth of complimentaries (free drinks, food, rooms, shows, limo rides, airfare, golf, and more) are handed out every day in Las Vegas. On weekends and holidays, comps climb into the millions.

Casino coupons are also wonderful! From those simple lucky buck coupons and free meals to discounts off your room — if you use them often I guarantee they will become like extra cash in your wallet. You can often find good coupons in local newspapers and magazines and through publications such as the monthly Las Vegas Advisor.

Shuffle tracking 1) Shuffle tracking is an advanced form of card counting.   A complete tutorial and expose of shuffle tracking can be found in Arnold Snyder’s 3-issue Shuffle Tracking Series from Blackjack Forum Magazine.   is an advanced area of card counting and if mastered you can expect to easily double or triple your expectation. That is assuming you find “trackable” games of course. Unfortunately, it is becoming harder and harder to find these games.

Some players join teams to allow them to reduce monetary fluctuation and play with a bigger bankroll. Also, non-counters can be used effectively on a team. Theoretically, you can make more money by playing on a team, assuming you trust everyone to accurately report wins and losses.

Dealer errors and mistakes happen occasionally and I would estimate they add a small percentage to my overall win-rate. It may not be much but I will take every edge I can get.

Your greatest expectation can come from exploiting casino promotions and new games and variations. Casinos have offered 2 to 1 on blackjack, early surrender, single deck with an edge, bonuses, jokers in the deck, etc. If you are sharp these games can be a short-time gold-mine.

But most important to how much money you can make in this game is the element of time. If you don’t play they don’t pay! Put in the time and everything else will take care of itself.

Footnotes   [ + ]

1. Shuffle tracking is an advanced form of card counting.   A complete tutorial and expose of shuffle tracking can be found in Arnold Snyder’s 3-issue Shuffle Tracking Series from Blackjack Forum Magazine.  

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